Surveillance MRI is associated with improved survival in patients with primary sclerosing cholangitis.

BACKGROUND: The benefits of regular surveillance imaging for cholangiocarcinoma in patients with primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC) are unclear. Hence, we aimed to evaluate the impact of regular magnetic resonance cholangiopancreatography (MRCP) on outcomes of patients with PSC in Australia, where the practice of MRCP surveillance is variable. METHODS: The relationship between MRCP surveillance and survival outcomes was assessed in a multicenter, retrospective cohort of patients with PSC from 9 tertiary liver centers in Australia. An inverse probability of treatment weighting approach was used to balance groups across potentially confounding covariates. RESULTS: A total of 298 patients with PSC with 2117 person-years of follow-up were included. Two hundred and twenty patients (73.8%) had undergone MRCP surveillance. Regular surveillance was associated with a 71% reduced risk of death on multivariate weighted Cox analysis (HR: 0.29, 95% CI: 0.14-0.59, p < 0.001) and increased likelihood of having earlier endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography from the date of PSC diagnosis in patients with a dominant stricture (p < 0.001). However, survival posthepatobiliary cancer diagnosis was not significantly different between both groups (p = 0.74). Patients who had surveillance of less than 1 scan a year (n = 41) had comparable survival (HR: 0.46, 95% CI 0.16-1.35, p = 0.16) compared to patients who had surveillance at least yearly (n = 172). CONCLUSIONS: In this multicenter cohort study that employed inverse probability of treatment weighting to minimize selection bias, regular MRCP was associated with improved overall survival in patients with PSC; however, there was no difference in survival after hepatobiliary cancer diagnosis. Further prospective studies are needed to confirm the benefits of regular MRCP and optimal imaging interval in patients with PSC.

Imaging-based diagnosis of sarcopenia for transplant-free survival in primary sclerosing cholangitis.

BACKGROUND: Imaging-based assessment of sarcopenia is a well-validated prognostic tool for patients with chronic liver disease. However, little is known about its value in patients with primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC). This cross-sectional study aimed to investigate the predictive value of the cross-sectional imaging-based skeletal muscle index (SMI) for transplant-free survival (TFS) in patients with PSC. METHODS: A total of 95 patients with PSC who underwent abdominal cross-sectional imaging between 2008 and 2022 were included in this retrospective study. SMI was measured at the third lumbar vertebra level (L3-SMI). The cut-off values to define sarcopenia were < 50 cm²/m² in male patients and < 39 cm²/m² in female patients. The primary outcome of this study was TFS, which was defined as survival without liver transplantation or death from any cause. RESULTS: Our study indicates that L3-SMI sarcopenia impairs TFS in patients with PSC (5-year TFS: 33.9% vs. 83.3%, p = 0.001, log-rank test). L3-SMI sarcopenia was independently associated with reduced TFS via multivariate Cox regression analysis (HR = 2.749; p = 0.028). Body mass index reduction > 10% at 12 months, which is used as MELD standard exception (SE) criterion in Eurotransplant (in Germany only until September 2023), was not significantly associated with TFS in the multivariate Cox regression analysis (HR = 1.417; p = 0.330). Substitution of BMI reduction with L3-SMI in the German SE criteria improved the predictive accuracy of TFS compared to the established SE criteria (multivariable Cox regression analysis: HR = 4.007, p < 0.001 vs. HR = 1.691, p = 0.141). CONCLUSION: Imaging-based diagnosis of sarcopenia via L3-SMI is associated with a low TFS in patients with PSC and may provide additional benefits as a prognostic factor in patient selection for liver transplantation.

Influence of socioeconomic factors on liver transplant survival outcomes in patients with autoimmune liver disease in the United States.

INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVES: Autoimmune liver diseases (AILDs): autoimmune hepatitis (AIH), primary biliary cholangitis (PBC), and primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC) have different survival outcomes after liver transplant (LT). Outcomes are influenced by factors including disease burden, medical comorbidities, and socioeconomic variables. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Using the United Network for Organ Sharing database (UNOS), we identified 13,702 patients with AILDs listed for LT between 2002 and 2021. Outcomes of interest were waitlist removal, post-LT patient survival, and post- LT graft survival. A stepwise multivariate analysis was performed adjusting for transplant recipient gender, race, diabetes mellitus, model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score, and additional social determinants including the presence of education, reliance on public insurance, working for income, and U.S. citizenship status. RESULTS: Lack of college education and having public insurance increased the risk of waitlist removal (HR, 1.13; 95 % CI, 1.05-1.23, and HR, 1.09; 95 % CI, 1.00-1.18; respectively), and negatively influenced post-LT patient survival (HR, 1.16; 95 % CI, 1.06-1.26, and HR, 1.15; 95 % CI, 1.06-1.25; respectively) and graft survival (HR, 1.13; 95 % CI, 1.05-1.23, and HR, 1.15; 95 % CI, 1.06-1.25; respectively). Not working for income proved to have the greatest detrimental impact on both patient survival (HR, 1.41; 95 % CI, 1.24-1.6) and graft survival (HR, 1.21; 95 % CI, 1.09-1.35). CONCLUSIONS: Our study highlights that lack of college education and public insurance have a detrimental impact on waitlist mortality, patient survival, and graft survival. Not working for income negatively affects post-LT survival outcomes. Not having U.S. citizenship does not affect survival outcomes in AILDs patients.

Primary sclerosing cholangitis and the risk of cancer, cardiovascular disease, and all-cause mortality: a systematic review and meta-analysis of cohort studies.

A diagnosis of primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC) has been associated with increased risk of hepatobiliary cancers, colorectal cancer and all-cause mortality in several studies, while associations with cardiovascular disease have been inconsistent. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of published cohort studies on the topic to summarize these associations. PubMed and Embase databases were searched up to January 13th, 2020. Cohort studies on PSC and risk of cancer, cardiovascular disease, or mortality were included. Summary relative risks (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) were estimated using random effects models. The summary RR (95% CI) comparing persons with PSC to persons without PSC was 584.37 (269.42-1267.51, I2 = 89%, n = 4) for cholangiocarcinoma (CCA), 155.54 (125.34-193.02, I2 = 0%, n = 3) for hepatobiliary cancer, 30.22 (11.99-76.17, I2 = 0%, n = 2) for liver cancer, 16.92 (8.73-32.78, I2 = 88%, n = 4) for gastrointestinal cancer, 7.56 (2.42-23.62, I2 = 0%, n = 3) for pancreatic cancer, 6.10 (4.19-8.87, I2 = 14%, n = 7) for colorectal cancer (CRC), 4.13 (2.99-5.71, I2 = 80%, n = 5) for total cancer, 3.55 (2.94-4.28, I2 = 46%, n = 5) for all-cause mortality, and 1.57 (0.25-9.69, I2 = 79%, n = 2) for cardiovascular disease. Strong positive associations were observed between PSC and risk of CCA, hepatobiliary cancer, liver cancer, gastrointestinal cancer, pancreatic cancer, CRC, total cancer, and all-cause mortality, but not for cardiovascular disease.

Circulating Macrophage Activation Markers Predict Transplant-Free Survival in Patients With Primary Sclerosing Cholangitis.

INTRODUCTION: Primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC) is a progressive liver disease characterized by bile duct inflammation and fibrosis. The role of macrophages in PSC development and progression is less studied. Macrophage activation markers soluble (s)CD163 and mannose receptor (sMR) are associated with disease severity and outcome in other liver diseases, but not previously investigated in PSC. We evaluated sCD163 and sMR regarding disease severity and prognosis in patients with PSC. METHODS: We investigated 2 independent PSC cohorts from Oslo (n = 138) and Helsinki (n = 159) and analyzed blood sCD163 and sMR levels. The Mayo score, Enhanced Liver Fibrosis Test, and Amsterdam-Oxford model were assessed for comparison. RESULTS: Median (interquartile range) sCD163 was 3.32 (2.27-5.60) and 1.96 (1.47-2.70) mg/L in the Oslo and Helsinki cohorts, respectively, reflecting differences in disease severity between cohorts. Median sMR was similar in both cohorts, 0.28 (0.22-0.44) and 0.28 mg/L (0.20-0.36), respectively. In both cohorts, sCD163 and sMR levels raised with increasing disease severity (liver enzymes, Mayo score, and enhanced liver fibrosis test). Patients with high baseline levels of sCD163 had shorter transplant-free survival than patients with low baseline levels. Furthermore, sCD163 was associated with transplant-free survival in univariate cox-regression analyses. Both sCD163 and sMR performed better in the Oslo cohort of more severely diseased patients than those in the Helsinki cohort of more mildly diseased patients. DISCUSSION: Macrophage activation markers are elevated according to disease severity suggesting an important role of macrophages in PSC. Furthermore, sCD163 was identified as a prognostic marker and predictor of transplant-free survival in PSC (see Visual Abstract, Supplementary Digital Content 4, http://links.lww.com/CTG/A516).

Male Sex Is Associated With Higher Rates of Liver-Related Mortality in Primary Biliary Cholangitis and Cirrhosis.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: The impact of sex on the postcirrhosis progression of primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) has not been well defined. Prior studies have suggested that men have worse outcomes but present at more advanced stages of fibrosis than women. This observation, however, has been limited by small numbers of men and even fewer patients with cirrhosis. APPROACH AND RESULTS: We investigated the association of sex with the development of all-cause and liver-related mortality or transplantation, decompensation, and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), using competing-risk time-updating Cox proportional hazards models in a large cohort of predominantly male patients with PBC cirrhosis assembled from the Veterans Health Administration. In a cohort of 532 participants (418 male) with PBC-related cirrhosis with a total follow-up of 3,231.6 person-years (PY) from diagnosis of compensated cirrhosis, male participants had a higher unadjusted rates of death or transplantation (8.5 vs. 3.8 per 100 PY; P < 0.0001), liver-related death or transplantation (5.5 vs. 2.7 per 100 PY; P < 0.0001), decompensation (5.5 vs. 4.0 per 100 PY; P = 0.002), and HCC (0.9 vs. 0.3 per 100 PY; P < 0.0001). After adjusting for confounders, male sex was associated with a higher risk of death or transplantation (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.80; 95% CI, 1.01-3.19; P = 0.046), and liver-related death or transplantation (subhazard ratio, 2.17; 95% CI, 1.15-4.08; P = 0.02). A sensitivity analysis that defined ursodeoxycholic acid response as normalization of alkaline phosphatase and total bilirubin revealed similar findings. CONCLUSIONS: In patients with PBC and well-compensated cirrhosis, male sex is associated with a higher risk of both death and liver-related death or transplantation.

The Sclerosing Cholangitis Outcomes in Pediatrics (SCOPE) Index: A Prognostic Tool for Children.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Disease progression in children with primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC) is variable. Prognostic and risk-stratification tools exist for adult-onset PSC, but not for children. We aimed to create a tool that accounts for the biochemical and phenotypic features and early disease stage of pediatric PSC. APPROACH AND RESULTS: We used retrospective data from the Pediatric PSC Consortium. The training cohort contained 1,012 patients from 40 centers. We generated a multivariate risk index (Sclerosing Cholangitis Outcomes in Pediatrics [SCOPE] index) that contained total bilirubin, albumin, platelet count, gamma glutamyltransferase, and cholangiography to predict a primary outcome of liver transplantation or death (TD) and a broader secondary outcome that included portal hypertensive, biliary, and cancer complications termed hepatobiliary complications (HBCs). The model stratified patients as low, medium, or high risk based on progression to TD at rates of <1%, 3%, and 9% annually and to HBCs at rates of 2%, 6%, and 13% annually, respectively (P < 0.001). C-statistics to discriminate outcomes at 1 and 5 years were 0.95 and 0.82 for TD and 0.80 and 0.76 for HBCs, respectively. Baseline hepatic fibrosis stage was worse with increasing risk score, with extensive fibrosis in 8% of the lowest versus 100% with the highest risk index (P < 0.001). The model was validated in 240 children from 11 additional centers and performed well. CONCLUSIONS: The SCOPE index is a pediatric-specific prognostic tool for PSC. It uses routinely obtained, objective data to predict a complicated clinical course. It correlates strongly with biopsy-proven liver fibrosis. SCOPE can be used with families for shared decision making on clinical care based on a patient's individual risk, and to account for variable disease progression when designing future clinical trials.

Cross-sectional imaging in patients with primary sclerosing cholangitis: Single time-point liver or spleen volume is associated with survival.

AIM: To evaluate the association between single time-point quantitative liver and spleen volumes in patients with PSC and transplant-free survival, independent of Mayo risk score. MATERIALS AND METHODS: This HIPAA-compliant retrospective study included 165 PSC patients in a hospital. Total (T), and lobar (right [R], left [L], and caudate [C]) liver volumes and spleen volume (S) were measured. Adverse outcome was identified as being on liver transplantation list, transplantation or death (outcome 1), and transplantation or death (outcome 2). Cox-regression was performed to assess the predictive value of volumetric parameters to predict transplant-free survival with and without Mayo risk score. Stratified analysis by Mayo risk score categories was performed to assess the discriminative value of volumes in the model. Prediction models were developed dependent of Mayo score, based on patients demographics, lab values and volumetric measures for both defined outcomes. Kaplan-Meier curves were depicted for different liver and spleen volumes. P value <0.05 was considered statistically significant. RESULTS: In this cohort (age 43 ±â€¯17 years; 59 % men) 51 % of patients had adverse outcome. Cox-regression analysis demonstrated statistically significant association between values of T, L, R, C, S, L/T, and C/T and outcome 1; and also statistically significant association between values C, S, and C/T and outcome 2. Prediction models included age, INR, total bilirubin, AST, variceal bleeding, S, and C for outcome 1 and age, INR, total bilirubin, AST, variceal bleeding, and S for outcome 2. CONCLUSIONS: Based on our observational study, quantitative liver and spleen volumes may be associated with transplant-free survival in patients with PSC and may have the potential for predicting the outcome but this should be validated by randomized clinical trial studies.

Primary Sclerosing Cholangitis: Burden of Disease and Mortality Using Data from the National Rare Diseases Registry in Italy.

Introduction: Studies on the epidemiology of primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC) are mainly based on tertiary referral centers; and are retrospective case series susceptible to selection bias. The aim of this study was to estimate incidence; survival and cause of mortality of PSC in Italy; using population-based data. Methods: Data collected from the National Rare Diseases Registry (RNMR) and the National Mortality Database (NMD) were integrated and analyzed. Results: We identified 502 PSC incident cases. The crude incidence rate between 2012 and 2014 was 0.10 per 100,000 individuals. Sixty percent were male; mean age at disease onset and at diagnosis were 33 and 37 years; respectively; highlighting a mean diagnostic delay of 4 years. The rate of interregional mobility was 12%. Ten-year survival was 92%. In 32% of cases the cause of death was biliary-related; 12% died of biliary or gallbladder cancer. Conclusions: For rare diseases such as PSC; population-based cohort's studies are of paramount importance. Incidence rates of PSC in Italy are markedly lower and survival much longer than the ones reported from tertiary; single-centre series. Moreover; the diagnostic delay and the patient interregional mobility highlights the need for increasing awareness on the disease and for resource reallocation among Italian regions within the National Health Service.

Secondary sclerosing cholangitis in critically ill patients has a poor outcome but lower tumour incidence than primary sclerosing cholangitis.

BACKGROUND: Secondary sclerosing cholangitis in critically ill patients (SSC-CIP) is an emerging disease with grim prognosis. OBJECTIVE: Our aim was the analysis of prognostic factors, long-term outcome and risk of tumour development in SSC-CIP compared with primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC) patients. METHODS: Retrospective analysis between 2008 and 2018. RESULTS: One hundred and eleven patients with SSC-CIP and 408 PSC patients were identified. Median orthotopic liver transplantation (OLT)-free survival was 16 months for SSC-CIP and 147 months for PSC (p < 0.001). OLT was performed in 18/111 SSC-CIP compared with 166/408 PSC patients (p < 0.001). Malignant tumours were detected in 17.9% of PSC patients (73/408) compared with 2.7% (3/111) in SSC-CIP (p < 0.001). In multivariate Cox regression analysis low levels of C-reactive protein (hazard ratio 4.687 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.144-19.199, p = 0.032) were significantly associated with a prolonged survival whereas higher age (hazard ratio 0.488 (95% CI 0.23-1.038), p = 0.062) showed a trend for shorter survival in SSC-CIP. For PSC malignancies (hazard ratio 0.42 (95% CI 0.313-0.575), p < 0.001) and higher age (hazard ratio 0.709 (95% CI 0.544-0.922), p = 0.01) were associated with a shorter OLT-free survival. CONCLUSION: SSC-CIP is characterized by acute onset of liver disease and poor prognosis but with lower tumour incidence compared with PSC.

Analysis of Patients With Incidental Perihilar Cholangiocarcinoma: An Old and a Persistent Burden for Liver Transplantation.

BACKGROUND: Selected patients with unresectable perihilar cholangiocarcinoma (p-CCA) are now considered as candidates for liver transplant, provided they fulfill a strict perioperative treatment and staging protocol. The aim of this study was to examine the outcomes of patients after liver transplant with incidental p-CCA found in the liver explants. METHODS: A cohort of 10 patients with incidental p-CCA after liver transplant in the period between 1994 and 2019 was included in this retrospective analysis. All patients with this diagnosis were scheduled for transplant because of primary sclerosing cholangitis. The primary and secondary endpoints comprised patient's death and tumor recurrence, respectively, assessed over a 5-year postoperative period. RESULTS: Patient median age was 35 years (range, 32-42 years). Median size of the tumor was 3.0 cm (range, 2.5-4.0 cm). Five patients (50%) had metastases to local lymph nodes. Overall survival was 100%, 37.5%, and 18.8% after the first, third, and fifth postoperative year, respectively, with median survival of 21 months. Patient age (P = .827), R1 resection status (P = .144), tumor diameter (P = .432), and presence of lymph node metastases (P = .663) were not significantly associated with overall survival. Recurrence-free survival was 60.0% after the first postoperative year and 22.5% after the third and fifth postoperative years, with median recurrence-free survival of 13.6 months. No significant predictors of tumor recurrence were found. CONCLUSIONS: Incidental p-CCA in patients with primary sclerosing cholangitis undergoing liver transplant is associated with universally very high risk of postoperative tumor recurrence and short expected survival.

Epidemiology, risk of malignancy and patient survival in primary sclerosing cholangitis: a population-based study in Finland.

Background: There are only a few and mostly small population-based epidemiological studies of primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC).Objective: We aimed to estimate prevalence and incidence rates of PSC, and survival and malignancy risk for PSC patients in a large population-based study.Methods: We retrieved 632 PSC patients from 1990 to 2015 in the Hospital District of Helsinki and Uusimaa (HUS), comprising 29% of the Finnish population. Mortality information of the PSC patients was obtained from the national Population Registry, malignancy information from the Finnish Cancer Registry and the causes of death from the Statistics Finland. Standardized incidence ratio and standardized mortality ratio (SMR) were calculated for predefined malignancy types.Results: The crude incidence of PSC in the HUS area was 1.58/100,000 person-years, and the point prevalence in 2015 was 31.7/100,000 inhabitants. The mean time from diagnosis to death was 21.9 years. The risk for any malignancy was three-fold and the risk for colorectal carcinoma was five-fold when comparing with the general population. During the first year after diagnosis of PSC, the risk for cholangiocarcinoma is 900-fold compared to the general population and after that 150-fold. SMR for all malignant neoplasms was 5.9 (95% CI 4.2-8.1).Conclusion: We found that the incidence of PSC in the HUS area in Finland is similar or higher than previously reported from other countries. The prevalence is markedly higher than reported elsewhere, probably due to the active search of the disease, suggesting that the disease is underdiagnosed.

Assessing the Validity of Adult-derived Prognostic Models for Primary Sclerosing Cholangitis Outcomes in Children.

BACKGROUND: Natural history models for primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC) are derived from adult patient data, but have never been validated in children. It is unclear how accurate such models are for children with PSC. METHODS: We utilized the pediatric PSC consortium database to assess the Revised Mayo Clinic, Amsterdam-Oxford, and Boberg models. We calculated the risk stratum and predicted survival for each patient within each model using patient data at PSC diagnosis, and compared it with observed survival. We evaluated model fit using the c-statistic. RESULTS: Model fit was good at 1 year (c-statistics 0.93, 0.87, 0.82) and fair at 10 years (0.78, 0.75, 0.69) in the Mayo, Boberg, and Amsterdam-Oxford models, respectively. The Mayo model correctly classified most children as low risk, whereas the Amsterdam-Oxford model incorrectly classified most as high risk. All of the models underestimated survival of patients classified as high risk. Albumin, bilirubin, AST, and platelets were most associated with outcomes. Autoimmune hepatitis was more prevalent in higher risk groups, and over-weighting of AST in these patients accounted for the observed versus predicted survival discrepancy. CONCLUSIONS: All 3 models offered good short-term discrimination of outcomes but only fair long-term discrimination. None of the models account for the high prevalence of features of autoimmune hepatitis overlap in children and the associated elevated aminotransferases. A pediatric-specific model is needed. AST, bilirubin, albumin, and platelets will be important predictors, but must be weighted to account for the unique features of PSC in children.

The Complementary Value of Magnetic Resonance Imaging and Vibration-Controlled Transient Elastography for Risk Stratification in Primary Sclerosing Cholangitis.

OBJECTIVES: Magnetic resonance (MR) risk scores and liver stiffness (LS) have individually been shown to predict clinical outcomes in primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC). The aim of this study was to assess their complementary prognostic value. METHODS: Patients with PSC from 3 European centers with a 3-dimensional MR cholangiography available for central reviewing and a valid LS measurement assessed by vibration-controlled transient elastography by FibroScan performed within a 6-month interval were included in a longitudinal retrospective study. The MR score (Anali) without gadolinium (Gd) was calculated according to the formula: (1 × dilatation of intrahepatic bile ducts) + (2 × dysmorphy) + (1 × portal hypertension). The primary end point was survival without liver transplantation or cirrhosis decompensation. The prognostic values of LS and Anali score without Gd were assessed using Cox proportional hazard models. RESULTS: One hundred sixty-two patients were included. Over a total follow-up of 753 patient-years, 40 patients experienced an adverse outcome (4 liver transplantations, 6 liver-related deaths, and 30 cirrhosis decompensations). LS and Anali score without Gd were significantly correlated (ρ = 0.51, P < 0.001) and were independently associated with the occurrence of an adverse outcome. Optimal prognostic thresholds were 10.5 kPa for LS and 2 for the Anali score without Gd. Hazard ratios (95% confidence interval) were 2.07 (1.06-4.06) and 3.78 (1.67-8.59), respectively. The use in combination of these 2 thresholds allowed us to separate patients into low-, medium-, and high-risk groups for developing adverse outcomes. The 5-year cumulative rates of adverse outcome in these 3 groups were 8%, 16%, and 38% (P < 0.001), respectively. DISCUSSION: The combined use of MRI and vibration-controlled transient elastography permits easy risk stratification of patients with PSC.

Association between serum IgG level and clinical course in primary sclerosing cholangitis.

BACKGROUND: Primary sclerosing cholangitis is a chronic cholestatic liver disease. The pathomechanism is still not fully understood, but there is evidence that immune-mediated processes may contribute to disease progression. METHODS: We studied the prognostic relevance of serum immunoglobulin G (IgG) elevated above the upper limit of normal as a marker for immune activation at initial diagnosis and its influence on transplantation-free survival in a well-defined cohort of PSC patients. RESULTS: The final study cohort comprises of 148 PSC patients. Elevated IgG levels were found in 66 patients (44.6%). Apart from their younger age at first diagnosis, there was no significant difference between patients with or without elevated IgG levels. The presence of a concomitant inflammatory bowel disease, an autoimmune hepatitis or immunosuppressive medication was equally distributed between both groups. Patients with elevated IgG levels reached the combined endpoint (34 (59.6%) vs. 23 (40.4%); p = 0.004) significantly more often and had reduced transplantation-free survival (Log-rank: 24.0 (10.2-37.9) vs. 14.0 (8.5-19.5); p < 0.05). Cox regression analysis including age, gender, presence of IBD, presence of dominant stricture (DS), Mayo Risk Score (MRS), immunosuppression, biochemical response to UDCA and elevated IgG-levels confirmed MRS (p = 0.03), DS (p = 0.04), biochemical response (p = 0.04) and elevated IgG level (p = 0.04) as independent risk factors for reduced transplantation-free survival. CONCLUSION: We identified elevated serum IgG levels at first diagnosis as an independent risk factor for reduced transplant free-survival in patients with PSC.

Validation, clinical utility and limitations of the Amsterdam-Oxford model for primary sclerosing cholangitis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Recently the Amsterdam-Oxford model (AOM) was introduced as a prognostic model to assess the risk of death and/or liver transplantation (LT) in primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC). We aimed to validate and assess the utility of the AOM. METHODS: Clinical and laboratory data were collected from the time of PSC diagnosis until the last visit or time of LT or death. The AOM was calculated at yearly intervals following PSC diagnosis. Discriminatory performance was assessed by calculation of the C-statistic and prediction accuracy by comparing the predicted survival with the observed survival in Kaplan-Meier estimates. A grid search was performed to identify the most discriminatory AOM threshold. RESULTS: A total of 534 patients with PSC and a mean (SD) age of 39.2 (13.1) years were included. The diagnosis was large duct PSC in 466 (87%), PSC with features of autoimmune hepatitis in 52 (10%) and small-duct PSC in 16 (3%). During the median (IQR) follow-up of 7.8 (4.0-12.6) years, 167 patients underwent LT and 65 died. The median LT-free survival was 13.2 (11.8-14.7) years. The C-statistic of the AOM ranged from 0.67 at baseline to 0.75 at 5 years of follow-up. The difference between the predicted and observed survival ranged from -1.6% at 1 year to + 3.9% at 5 years of follow-up. Patients that developed AOM scores >2.0 were at significant risk of LT or death (time-dependent hazard ratio 4.09; 95% CI 2.99-5.61). CONCLUSIONS: In this large cohort of patients with PSC, the AOM showed an adequate discriminative performance and good prediction accuracy at PSC diagnosis and during follow-up. This study further validates the AOM as a valuable risk stratification tool in PSC and extends its utility. LAY SUMMARY: In our study we assessed whether the Amsterdam-Oxford model (AOM) is able to correctly estimate the risk of liver transplantation or death in patients with primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC). This model uses 7 objective and readily available variables to estimate prognosis for individual patients at the time of PSC diagnosis. The AOM may aid in patient counselling and timing of diagnostic procedures or therapeutic interventions for complications of liver disease. We confirm that the model works well at PSC diagnosis, but also when the AOM is recalculated at different timepoints during follow-up, greatly improving the applicability of the model in clinical practice and for individual patients.

Quantitative spleen and liver volume changes predict survival of patients with primary sclerosing cholangitis.

AIM: To assess the value of quantitative spleen and liver volume changes in predicting the survival of patients with primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC). MATERIALS AND METHODS: This institutional review board-approved single-centre study included 89 PSC patients with baseline and follow-up liver imaging studies and laboratory data between 2000 and 2018. Change in spleen, total and lobar liver volumes, and lobar-to-total liver volume ratio was compared between patients with and without adverse outcome (liver transplantation, transplant waiting list, and death). Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) and Kaplan-Meier analysis were performed to identify the volumetric threshold for prediction of outcome and show how these thresholds predict survival, respectively. A p-value of <0.05 was considered statistically significant. RESULTS: The present cohort included 53 men (60%), with mean age of 42 years at baseline. The only volumetric parameters with significant differences in change between patients with and without adverse outcome were spleen volume (p<0.001) and left-to-total liver volume ratio (L/T; p=0.025). The probability of transplant-free survival at 36 months was 59.1% versus 11.9% for patients with spleen volume change <50 ml versus ≥50 ml, respectively (AUC=0.731); and 61.3% versus 13.8% for patients with L/T change <0.04 versus ≥0.04, respectively (AUC=0.638). The patients with changes below the cut-off in both spleen volume and L/T, had a higher probability of transplant-free survival at 36 months (76.8%), compared to those with change at or below the cut-offs in one or both of these two parameters (36.7%, 15%, respectively; p=0.001). CONCLUSION: Spleen volume change and L/T change might be useful biomarkers for prediction of transplant-free survival in patients with PSC.

Autotaxin activity predicts transplant-free survival in primary sclerosing cholangitis.

Autotaxin has been associated with liver disease severity and transplant-free survival. This study aimed to validate autotaxin as a biomarker in two cohorts of Norwegian large-duct PSC patients, one discovery panel (n = 165) and one validation panel (n = 87). Serum activity of autotaxin was measured in diluted sera by a fluorometric enzymatic assay. Patients reaching an end-point, liver transplantation or death, (discovery panel: n = 118 [71.5%]; validation panel: n = 35 [40.2%]), showed higher autotaxin activity compared with the other patients, P < 0.001 and P = 0.004, respectively. Kaplan-Meier survival analyses showed a strong association between increasing autotaxin activity and shorter liver transplant-free survival (discovery panel: P < 0.001, validation panel: P = 0.001). There was no relationship between autotaxin activity and the presence of inflammatory bowel disease or occurrence of hepatobiliary malignancy. In a multivariable analysis, high autotaxin activity was associated with an increased risk of liver transplantation or death (hazard ratio 2.03 (95% confidence interval 1.21-3.40), P < 0.01), independent from Mayo risk score, an in-house enhanced liver fibrosis score and interleukin-8 in serum. In conclusion, increased serum autotaxin activity is associated with reduced liver transplant-free survival independent from Mayo risk score and markers of inflammation and fibrosis.

Disease progression in paediatric- and adult-onset sclerosing cholangitis: Results from two independent Dutch registries.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Sclerosing cholangitis (SC) is a severe liver disease leading to destruction of bile ducts. It is believed to run a milder course in children than in adults. To test this assumption, we evaluated time-to-complication curves in two independent paediatric-onset cohorts from the same geographical area. METHODS: Short-term disease outcomes were evaluated with an online clinical registry that was filled with data on children with SC diagnosed between 2000 and 2017 and who were followed bi-annually thereafter. Long-term disease outcomes were evaluated in a paediatric-onset subcohort derived from a previously published population-based study from the Netherlands. Time-to-complication in the first cohort was defined as the time from diagnosis until portal hypertension, biliary obstructions and infections, development of malignancy, or liver transplantation, whichever came first. In the second cohort time-to-complication was defined as the time until liver transplantation or PSC-related death. RESULTS: Median age at diagnosis in the first cohort (n = 86) was 12.3 years. In the first 5 years post-diagnosis 23% of patients developed complications. The patients in the population-based study (n = 683) were stratified into those diagnosed before the age of 18 years ('paediatric-onset' subcohort, n = 43) and those diagnosed after the age of 18 years ('adult-onset' subcohort, n = 640). Median age at diagnosis was 14.6 and 40.2 years, respectively. Median time-to-complication in the paediatric-onset and adult-onset subcohorts was not statistically different. CONCLUSION: Paediatric and adult-onset SC run a similar long-term disease course. Paediatricians who treat children with SC should monitor them closely to recognize early complications and control long-term sequelae.

Contributing factors and outcomes of burn-associated cholestasis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Cholestasis often occurs after burn injuries. However, the prevalence of cholestasis and its effect on outcomes in patients with severe burn injuries are unknown. The aim of this study was to describe the course and the burden of cholestasis in a cohort of severely burned adult patients. METHODS: We investigated the relationship between burn-associated cholestasis (BAC) and clinical outcomes in a retrospective cohort of patients admitted to our unit for severe burn injuries between 2012 and 2015. BAC was defined as an increased level of serum alkaline phosphatase (ALP) ≥1.5x the upper limit of normal (ULN) with an increased level of gamma-glutamyltransferase (GGT) ≥3x ULN, or as an increased level of total bilirubin ≥2x ULN. RESULTS: A total of 214 patients were included: 111 (52%) patients developed BAC after a median (IQR) stay of 9 (5-16) days. At 90 days, the mortality rate was 20%, including 34 and 9 patients with and without BAC (p <0.001), respectively, which corresponded to a 2.5-fold higher (95% CI 1.2-5.2, p = 0.012) risk of 90-day mortality for patients with BAC. After being adjusted for severity of illness, patients with BAC, hyperbilirubinemia and without elevated ALP and GGT levels had a hazard ratio of 4.51 (95% CI 1.87-10.87) for 90-day mortality. BAC was associated with the severity of the burn injury, shock and bacteraemia. BAC was present in 38 (51%) patients at discharge, and 7 (18%) patients had secondary sclerosing cholangitis. These patients maintained elevated levels of ALP and GGT that were 5.8x (1.7-15) the ULN and 11x the ULN (4.5-22), respectively, 20 months (3.5-35) after discharge. CONCLUSION: BAC is prevalent among patients with severe burn injuries and is associated with worse short-term outcomes, especially when total bilirubin levels were increased without elevated ALP and GGT levels. BAC survivors are at risk of developing sclerosing cholangitis. LAY SUMMARY: Cholestasis is common after burn injuries and is associated with burn severity, sepsis, organ failure and mortality. Patients with hyperbilirubinemia without elevated alkaline phosphatase and gamma-glutamyltransferase levels after the burn injury have a poor prognosis. Patients with burn-associated cholestasis may develop sclerosing cholangitis and secondary biliary cirrhosis.